2for22

Asian Games in Japan Men's 2026

How often our predictions came true, graded against 12 finished matches in the archive.

Pre-match favourite won
67%
Rerun after the fact 2 of 3 small sample
In-play: the side we had ahead won
70%
19 of 27 readings, after 5, 10 and 15 overs of each innings
Projected total after 10 overs
±18 runs
off the final total on average, over 5 innings small sample

Before the first ball

Did the side our pre-match forecast favoured go on to win?

Saved before the first ball
Saving began on 27 September 2026. The first saved forecast is graded when its match finishes.

The true record: taken once both XIs are named and kept unchanged, whatever happens.

Rerun after the fact
67%
Called 2 of 3 matches right small sample

The archive played again now. Our player data already includes most of these matches, so this runs a little flattering.

Who's ahead, as the match is played

After 5, 10 and 15 overs of each innings: did the side our win % had ahead go on to win?

50%
coin toss
60%
5 ov
5
60%
10 ov
5
60%
15 ov
5
80%
5 ov
5
75%
10 ov
4
100%
15 ov
3

The figure under each bar is how many matches were graded there. A chase won before 15 overs has no 15-over reading.

When it said…

Every in-play reading above, grouped by how sure it was. A well-judged win % lands on its tick: of the times it said about 70%, that side should have won about 70% of them.

Said 50–60%
won 60% of 5
Said 60–70%
won 50% of 4
Said 70–80%
won 40% of 5
Said 80–90%
won 80% of 5
Said 90–100%
won 100% of 8

The projected first-innings total

How far the projection was from the total the side actually made.

After 5 overs small sample
±23
runs off, on average
within 10 runs
20%
within 20 runs
80%
Tends to run 23 high · 5 innings
After 10 overs small sample
±18
runs off, on average
within 10 runs
20%
within 20 runs
60%
Tends to run 18 high · 5 innings
After 15 overs small sample
±3
runs off, on average
within 10 runs
100%
within 20 runs
100%
No lean either way · 5 innings
How this is graded
  • Pre-match forecast. Graded on the percentage the forecast tab showed: since 27 September 2026 the 500 simulated matches weighed for how sure they have proved and combined with each side's team strength, with a player the data does not know stood in as a newcomer; before that, the plain share of the 500 won. It counts as right when the side it favoured won. A 50–50 forecast makes no call and isn't counted.
  • Saved and rerun are kept apart. From 27 September 2026 each forecast is saved once both XIs are named and before the first ball, and it is never changed. Matches before that were played again afterwards, on today's forecast and on player data that already includes most of them, which flatters the rerun a little.
  • In-play win %. Read exactly as the match's own screen shows it, at the end of the 5th, 10th and 15th overs. It counts as right when the side it had ahead (over 50%) won. A reading taken on the ball that ended an innings isn't counted: by then the match was decided.
  • Projected total. The first innings only (a chase has a target instead), against the total the side actually made.
  • Left out. Matches with no winner (abandoned, no result, tied), 6 here. Rain-shortened matches are left out of the in-play grades (1 here), because their readings are now worked out on a length nobody knew at the time.
  • Small samples. A figure resting on fewer than 10 matches is marked, and faded in the table. One lucky match shouldn't read like a trend.